The latest Siena University numbers show Governor Kathy Hochul’s advantage narrowing as Bruce Blakeman gains traction, and the poll also finds the Democratic Socialists of America suffering a negative favorability among likely New York voters. The survey paints a contested race with clear partisan divides, shifting suburban dynamics, and specific numbers on issues like affordability, housing and public safety. Results were collected from 811 likely voters in early August and carry a typical margin of error for this size sample. The DSA registered a net negative footprint in the state, complicating the left’s coalition heading into the fall.
The poll puts Hochul ahead 49-39% among likely gubernatorial voters, down from a stronger showing earlier this year when registered voters answered similarly. That slide gives Republicans reason to press and energize the base, especially with under three months until Election Day. For a campaign fighting high taxes and rising costs, tightening margins are a clear opening.
Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and the Republican nominee, disputed the poll’s accuracy and pointed to closer internal numbers from his team. He said, “All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul,” and, “This poll is always off and continues to be off.” Those lines are now central to his message that momentum is building outside Manhattan.
Siena’s pollster highlighted historical context to frame the race and warned against complacency on both sides. “At this point four years ago, August 2022, when Hochul was just finishing her first year as governor, she led her opponent, former Republican Congressman (and current EPA Administrator) Lee Zeldin by 14 points, 53-39%, before going on to ultimately win the election by six points, 53-47%,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. That comparison is intended to remind strategists how quickly a race can tighten or swing.
On specific pocketbook issues, voters still tilt toward Hochul on affordability and housing, with her holding narrow advantages on lowering everyday costs and expanding affordable housing supply. Those margins are not overwhelming and leave room for a focused Republican economic message to make gains. Energy prices and property taxes remain ripe areas for critique.
Safety and immigration split the electorate more evenly, leaving public order a live issue for both campaigns. Voters favored Hochul 47-44% on keeping New Yorkers safe, and she led 45-44% on handling undocumented immigrants, figures that show vulnerability. Republicans can use those close numbers to argue for law-and-order policies and border control at the state level.
Partisan loyalty is strong, with both candidates locked into their bases and independents providing the swing. “Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, as Hochul leads among Democrats 80-8% and Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9%. Likely independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45-40%,” Greenberg said. That independent edge could be decisive in a tight race.
Geography matters. “Hochul holds a commanding 64-19% lead in New York City, but trails Blakeman in the downstate suburbs by eight points, 49-41%. They are running virtually even in upstate, as well as among men and with white voters; Hochul has large leads with women, Latinos and Black voters,” he added. The suburban gap explains why Republicans are investing heavily in those downstate battlegrounds.
The Siena Research Institute also asked voters about the Democratic Socialists of America for the first time in this polling cycle, and the group landed with negative overall numbers. The DSA’s favorability was sharply divided along partisan lines, with many independents viewing the group unfavorably. That weak standing complicates progressive efforts to shift mainstream Democratic positions.
“Democrats view the DSA favorably, 50-21%, while 82% of Republicans and 57% of independents have an unfavorable view of the DSA,” the Siena Research Institute said. Those figures give Republicans a ready framing tool to paint certain Democratic allies as out of step with average New Yorkers. Messaging that ties radical labels to practical concerns can resonate in the suburbs.
The methodology matters: the poll was conducted Aug. 3-6 among 811 likely New York voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points for those who completed the survey. Small shifts in turnout or persuasion could easily flip the reported gaps within that range. Campaigns on both sides will race to mobilize their voters and sway undecided independents.
With the race tightening, expect more aggressive advertising, targeted suburban outreach and sharper debates over taxes, crime and energy. Republicans see a path through independents and suburban voters who are reacting to higher costs and safety concerns. For now, the numbers say this is far from settled and every campaign move will count between now and November.
