NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The New York Islanders are generating plenty of scoring chances but not enough goals, and head coach Pete DeBoer says that gap is the team’s central problem heading into Tuesday night’s game against the Predators.
The Islanders rank eighth in the league in high-danger chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick. Yet they are not scoring the roughly three goals per game DeBoer says his team should be able to count on most nights.
“There’s always teams at the end of the year that, that gap [between chances and goals] never closes,” DeBoer said Monday after a detail-focused practice in Nashville. “But you can’t coach the puck into the net. I think our idea here is that we continue to tilt the ice, if we continue to win that battle, if we continue to put up those underlying numbers, then we’ll score enough.”
The team’s 11-game season includes a 6-3 loss to the Dallas Stars on Sunday that DeBoer and his players are treating as an outlier rather than a trend. Still, expected-goals models at Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey rate the Islanders’ 5-on-5 offense far lower than the high-danger chance numbers suggest — 17th and 19th in the league, respectively. Both models indicate the team has struggled to generate looks from the dangerous area right in front of the net.
Forward Emil Heineman pointed to execution problems rather than a lack of opportunity.
“Sometimes just isn’t sharp enough. Passes or whatever it is, it’s not crisp, or maybe we’ve been talking a lot to hold onto the puck a little bit more in the O-zone. Not just send it and [make] hope plays. Stuff like that.”
Much of the team’s success this season has come from its play away from the puck. Outside of Sunday’s loss, the Islanders’ defense and neutral-zone structure have forced play into the opponent’s end consistently, which in turn has produced scoring chances. The power play has also been productive.
Captain Bo Horvat said the issue is finishing, not creating.
“We’re creating a lot of good offense. It’s just a matter of it going in for us and obviously, us bearing down in front of the net. Capitalizing on our opportunities is gonna be big for us. For the most part, we’re doing a good job of creating. Last game wasn’t our best and we know that.”
Sunday’s loss exposed how quickly things can unravel without puck pursuit and sustained pressure. The Islanders managed just seven high-danger chances at 5-on-5 and couldn’t maintain offensive-zone time for more than a single shift at a stretch.
Without a roster full of elite scorers, the Islanders are built to win by grinding opponents down with constant pressure. Monday’s practice centered on fixing the breakdowns from Dallas, with players emphasizing structure and support.
Forward Kyle Palmieri described the approach.
“It’s looking for the right thing but also being in support of each other. Knowing where your outs are. When you have the opportunity to keep plays alive, sometimes when you get them trying to break out, it keeps [the other team] out of their structure, too. It’s a process that we’ve been building.”
The Islanders face the Predators Tuesday night in Nashville looking to show the Dallas loss was an aberration rather than a sign of deeper offensive trouble.
