Steve Hilton has accused Governor Gavin Newsom of fearmongering over a possible all-Democrat general election in California, arguing the governor is trying to split Republican votes under the state’s jungle primary system. With the primary days away, Republicans worry they could be shut out of the ballot while Democrats scramble too, and Hilton has pressed his GOP rival to step aside. Polling shows Hilton leading and Democratic candidates clustered behind him, creating a tense, unpredictable finish that both parties are watching closely.
California’s primary arrives under the top-two jungle format that advances the two highest vote-getters to the general election regardless of party, and that structure is at the heart of the current scramble. Both parties are nervous about being locked out of the fall ballot if voters split badly in June. The system can produce matchups that neither side wants, and strategists are openly debating the consequences.
Governor Newsom signaled he has contingencies in place if Democrats risk being excluded, and his remarks set off immediate pushback. “There’s many people that have a deep understanding of what it would look like if Democrats were locked out, and we’re going to do everything to make sure that doesn’t happen,” Newsom said. “I’ll leave it there.”
Hilton dismissed Newsom’s comments as a calculated play to divide Republican support and to blunt attention on the governor’s record. “He’s not trying to stop a ‘top two Republican’ outcome because that is not possible and never was,” Hilton said in response. He added that “Newsom and the Democrats are fearmongering over a R vs R matchup in the general election precisely to encourage Republicans to split their votes, thus guaranteeing an all-Democrat top two,” insisting the tactic is about politics, not policy.
Polling averages currently put Hilton out front with Democratic contenders closely clustered behind him, and another Republican, Chad Bianco, well back in the field. Those numbers have driven Hilton to press Bianco directly to step aside in the name of conservative unity. In a video posted to X on Tuesday, Hilton urged Bianco to withdraw so the GOP could avoid being shut out of November’s ballot.
Republican strategists see the stakes plainly: an all-Democrat general election would let the party dodge scrutiny of their leadership in Sacramento and could blunt criticism of Newsom as he eyes future ambitions. That possibility fuels Republican urgency to protect a spot on the ballot. For conservatives, the priority is clear—ensure a Republican presence in the fall so voters have a real choice.
Experts point to past examples to show how the jungle primary can produce single-party general elections and reshape campaigns. “This is really the first gubernatorial election where there’s no obvious winner, so that’s why it’s such a tense thing,” Richard Winger said, underlining how unusual the present contest feels. His view echoes a broader concern that the primary system can yield surprising and undesired matchups.
Observers note that the top-two system has already shut one party out in key races. “The Republicans were shut out in the California U.S. Senate primary in 2018 when the top two vote getters were Kamala Harris and Rep. Linda Sanchez, and there have been other races where either Republicans or Democrats were shut out of the general election because of the top two,” Frommer pointed out. That history keeps both sides on edge as they try to navigate candidate fields and turnout dynamics.
Democratic strategists initially fretted that a crowded field could split votes and let two Republicans advance, but the numbers have shifted as the contest matured. “I think early on there was genuine, genuine concern of the Democratic party, because there were so many Democratic candidates that Hilton and Bianco were going to be the top two vote getters,” Frommer said. “Now that’s changed a bit.”
Turnout patterns remain a wildcard that could produce surprising outcomes for either party. “Usually, there’s a lot more people overall voting by this point, and they’re not, and so I think that concern is real for Democrats, that people wait too long to fill out their ballots, and there’s only two Republican candidates,” Frommer warned, pointing to the persistent risk created by low participation. Meanwhile, a Democratic strategist has already floated a ballot initiative aimed at scrapping the jungle primary after the anger such a result would provoke, saying “I think if two Republicans make the ballot, or if two Democrats make the ballot, then voter outrage will be high, and that will only focus on just what a failed experiment this is.”
