Pollster Lee Carter argues the critical swing voter in 2026 isn’t torn between Republicans and Democrats — they’re torn between voting and staying home.
Pew Research data cited by Carter shows 12% of voters skipped both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms despite being eligible. Trump won that group by 14 points. Among people who voted in all three elections — 2020, 2022, and 2024 — the split was nearly even: Trump 50%, Harris 48%. Across all Americans eligible to vote in those three contests, only 41% actually voted in all three.
Carter points to 2022 as evidence turnout mattered more than persuasion. Among voters who cast ballots in both 2020 and 2022, just 6% switched parties or went third-party. Instead, 71% of Trump’s 2020 voters came back in 2022, compared with only 67% of Biden’s.
The registration numbers for 2026 favor Republicans in several key states. Since 2018, the GOP’s voter-registration margin relative to Democrats has improved by eight percentage points in North Carolina, seven in Pennsylvania, five in Nevada, and four in Arizona.
But Democrats currently hold an enthusiasm edge. A Pew survey found 63% of Democratic House candidate supporters say they’re extremely motivated to vote, compared with 46% of Republican supporters.
Carter cautions that neither registration gains nor enthusiasm numbers guarantee anything. In 2022, America posted its highest midterm voter-registration rate in decades — yet fewer eligible Americans actually voted than in 2018.
“The old swing voter was deciding who deserved their vote. The new swing voter doesn’t necessarily switch sides. Sometimes, they switch off,” Carter writes.
With less than three weeks until Election Day, Carter says the real questions are about who shows up: whether 2022’s no-shows return, whether Trump’s 2024 voters turn out without him on the ballot, whether Democratic enthusiasm converts into actual votes, and whether newly registered Republicans follow through at the polls.
