With the dawn of 2025, President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to reverse the energy and climate policies of the Biden administration, promising to end what he calls an “anti-energy crusade.” Trump’s vision for American energy independence, dominance, and abundance starkly contrasts with President Joe Biden’s pledge to “end fossil fuel” and combat climate change.
As Trump prepares to take office, his administration is poised to prioritize fossil fuel production and mining expansion, a move that could significantly reshape the U.S. energy landscape. However, experts caution that market forces, regulatory hurdles, and technical constraints could limit the immediate impact of these policies.
During a speech at the Economic Club of New York in September, Trump pledged to slash energy costs, claiming he could bring gasoline prices below $2 per gallon within a year of taking office. “We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country,” Trump stated. “My plan will cut energy prices in half… It will be an economic revival like no one has ever seen before.”
Trump has backed his rhetoric with key appointments: North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a leader in the nation’s third-largest oil-producing state, has been tapped for Interior Secretary, while Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright is slated for Energy Secretary. If confirmed, Wright will become the first Energy Secretary with direct industry experience.
Despite Trump’s ambitions, market conditions may temper the effects of his policies. Under Biden, the U.S. reached record-high oil production levels, driven by high prices rather than favorable regulatory conditions. Chemical engineer Robert Rapier explained that production increases are dictated by prices, not policy alone.
“Trump will make areas available for drilling and sweep away restrictive rules,” Rapier noted, “but I don’t expect that to spur a lot of drilling. Prices will dictate investment.”
Oil executives have signaled that production plans remain cautious. Over recent months, production has plateaued as prices hovered below $70 per barrel. If prices stay low, investments in new drilling may decline, regardless of Trump’s deregulatory agenda.
One area where Trump’s policies could have an immediate impact is liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Biden’s moratorium on LNG export permits to non-free trade agreement countries, including European allies, faced significant criticism. Trump plans to overturn this restriction, boosting exports and enhancing the U.S.’s position as the world’s largest LNG exporter.
“This will have a significant long-term impact,” Rapier said, emphasizing the U.S.’s abundant natural gas reserves.
Trump’s pro-mining stance aims to undo policies like Biden’s cancellation of mining leases in Minnesota and restrictions on road access for mining in Alaska. However, the impact of these changes may take decades to materialize.
David Hammond, a veteran mineral economist, explained that mining projects face lengthy timelines. For example, the Resolution Copper mine in Arizona has been mired in permitting processes for over a decade. Even under optimal conditions, it would take another decade to begin production.
Trump’s administration could expedite permitting processes, but meaningful reform will require Congressional action. Permitting delays, litigation, and fluctuating mineral prices remain significant barriers to rapid growth in the mining sector.
Beyond policy changes, Trump’s presidency could reshape the national dialogue on climate change. By calling the climate crisis a “hoax,” Trump challenges the prevailing narrative that fossil fuels must be rapidly phased out to prevent environmental catastrophe.
Frank Lasee, president of Truth in Energy and Climate, emphasized the importance of this rhetorical shift. “Trump will continue to say, ‘There isn’t a climate crisis,’” Lasee said. “This leadership effect will resonate with the American people.”
During Biden’s presidency, questioning climate policy often resulted in being labeled a “climate denier.” Trump’s rejection of this framing could embolden critics of rapid decarbonization efforts.
Trump’s energy policies signal a dramatic departure from the Biden administration’s focus on renewable energy and emissions reduction. While Trump’s plans to boost fossil fuels and mining may provide short-term economic benefits, their long-term impact will depend on market conditions, regulatory reforms, and technological advancements.
Congress will play a crucial role in determining the success of Trump’s agenda. Proposals for permitting reform, including changes to the Endangered Species Act and environmental impact assessments, are likely to face significant political battles.
Whether Trump’s policies can deliver the promised “economic revival” remains to be seen. However, his administration’s focus on energy independence and industrial growth is set to reshape America’s energy landscape and challenge the global push for climate action.
As 2025 begins, the U.S. stands at a crossroads, with Trump’s presidency poised to chart a new course in the nation’s energy and environmental policies.