Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) says polling is underestimating Republican strength heading into the 2026 midterms, and that turnout, not polling margins, will decide whether the GOP keeps its Senate majority.
Thune made the remarks in an interview with Fox News Digital while campaigning for Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE). He described many of the contested races as toss-ups but said he believes the public polling doesn’t reflect actual Republican support.
“I think there are a lot of races right now just looking at the polling that are up for grabs,” Thune said. “I mean you could call them jump balls, however you want to say it. They’re margin of error races, and there are some that are maybe a little out of the margin. But I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote.”
“And I think you’ll see some of that. So we’re not giving up on any of them,” he continued.
Thune did not offer specifics on internal Republican polling. He instead pointed to turnout as the deciding factor in close races.
“Turnout’s going to be a big part of whether or not we’re successful or not. And in every state I’ve been in, that is a clear-eyed focus of our candidates,” Thune said. “That’s where resources are being invested. And I think that could be the difference for us come Election Day on whether or not we win a lot of these close races or not. And I think that we’re gonna outperform the polls for sure come Election Day.”
Republicans currently hold the Senate majority and are playing defense this cycle. Among the contests drawing attention is Alaska’s Senate race, where Democrat Mary Peltola is running against Dan Sullivan under the state’s ranked-choice voting system.
Thune’s comments come as he faces pressure both on the campaign trail and from Republican voters frustrated over the failure to pass the SAVE America Act. Whether his prediction holds will depend on turnout operations in the states he’s been visiting, including South Dakota, Nebraska, and Alaska.
