The 2026 primary season flips the switch this week with key contests in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas that could decide whether Republicans keep control of the House and Senate. These races are a raw test of party strength, candidate temperament and which message voters trust heading into a bruising general election cycle.
Texas dominates the map with explosive Senate primaries on both sides. On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state lawmaker James Talarico are fighting for a shot at the Senate in a state Republicans have largely owned for decades.
The GOP primary is a three-way slugfest between longtime Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, and it has national implications. Cornyn and allied groups have poured cash into attack ads against Paxton and Hunt, arguing the wrong nominee could cost Republicans the seat.
“If I’m the nominee, I’ll help President Trump by making sure that we carry the five new congressional seats as well as maintain this Senate seat and will help him continue his agenda through the last two years of his term of office,” Cornyn said, framing his pitch around the broader GOP map and down-ballot consequences. He warned that a vulnerable nominee could jeopardize the last two years of the national agenda if Democrats flip the seat.
Paxton pushed back hard on the criticism, pointing to his electoral track record and polling. “I’m 3-0. I’ve won three statewide races,” he told supporters, and he dismissed claims he cannot win as unfounded and out of step with recent public polls.
Paxton added forcefully in the closing days that Cornyn is out of touch with what’s happening on the ground and that a runoff would improve his odds. “This idea that I can’t win a race is not true… there’s no evidence of what he’s saying is being true. As a matter of fact, the evidence is just the opposite,” Paxton said, arguing momentum and name recognition favor him.
Hunt catapulted into the race late and has pitched himself as the general election option who can win suburban voters. He warns that outside DC money won’t determine the outcome and insists Texans will decide the next senator, not party elites.
President Trump stayed officially neutral but showed up in Texas, offering a light touch of praise for each contender. “They’re in a little race together,” Trump said of Cornyn and Paxton. “You know that, right? A little bit of a race. It’s going to be an interesting one, right? They’re both great people, too.” He also complimented Hunt and called the overall showdown an “interesting election.”
The Democratic primary took on its own drama as race and electability arguments took center stage. Crockett accused a Talarico-aligned super PAC of darkening her photo and called the move “straight up racist,” while she also rejected suggestions she was unelectable as a dog whistle “tearing down a Black woman” and insisted she was the “most qualified” candidate.
Talarico, who came up through the state House and built national attention through social media and media appearances, pushed the electability argument and denied racial accusations. He responded to an influencer’s allegation with a statement that defended his praise of Crockett and insisted he would not attack someone on the basis of race: “In my praise of Congresswoman Crockett, I described Congressman Allred’s method of campaigning as mediocre — but his life and service are not. I would never attack him on the basis of race.”
Allred, responding in a said: “James, if you want to compliment Black women, just do it. Just do it. Don’t do it while also tearing down a Black man.”
Both major Democrats hauled in national attention and endorsements late in the campaign. Crockett scored a robocall from former Vice President Kamala Harris: “Texas has the chance to send a fighter like Jasmine Crockett to the United States Senate,” Harris said in the call. “Jasmine has the experience and record to hold Donald Trump and his billionaire cronies accountable.” Rapper Cardi B also urged support: “If you want somebody that’s going to go up there and represent you and represent your issues, please vote for my sister, Jasmine Crockett.”
Talarico’s digital profile and TV appearances fed a surge of attention, with his campaign reporting $2.5 million raised in the 24 hours “following his censored” appearance on late night. That burst only intensified the perception that national forces are pulling both directions in Texas.
Beyond the Senate, Texas has volatile House primaries worth watching, including a challenge to Rep. Tony Gonzales amid personal controversy, Dan Crenshaw’s fight with a Cruz-backed state lawmaker, and a reshaped Democratic battle involving Christian Menefee and Al Green. Each contest feeds into how national control could shake out in November.
Outside Texas, North Carolina’s GOP Senate primary looks settled with Michael Whatley as the clear frontrunner to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, while former Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to win the Democratic nod. In Arkansas, Sen. Tom Cotton faces primary opposition as he runs for a third term and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders runs unopposed for reelection, keeping the GOP map competitive in the South.
https://x.com/ColinAllredTX/status/2018384625899294820
