The coming meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping puts one unexpected American export in the spotlight: soybeans. This crop is both a literal lifeline for heartland farmers and a benchmark for how trade policy plays out in real lives. The duel over tariffs, market access, and strategic decoupling has turned soybeans into a political and economic test case that both leaders will have to face head on.
The soybean story is a plain example of how foreign policy hits Main Street. When Beijing stopped buying American soybeans in retaliation for tariffs, U.S. farmers felt it immediately in their pocketbooks. That shift forced China to buy from Brazil and Argentina, and it showed how fast markets can rewire themselves when politics get involved.
Farmers across the Midwest watched export percentages swing wildly over a few years, and those swings matter in farm country. The share of U.S. soybeans headed to China has bounced up and down, and each drop translates into tighter margins and harder choices on the farm. That volatility feeds political pressure for leaders to secure predictable markets and defend American producers.
“China was always going to reduce its reliance on the United States for food security,” Bryan Burack, a senior policy advisor for China and the Indo-Pacific at the Heritage Foundation told Fox News Digital. “China started signing purchase agreements with other countries for soybeans well before President Trump took office,” he said, adding that Beijing has “been decoupling from the U.S. for a long time.”
“Unfortunately, the only way for us to respond is to do the same and that process is painful and excruciating,” Burack said. Those are tough words because they admit what farmers already know: decoupling is disruptive, and rebuilding trade relationships is slow. From a conservative perspective, that means being smart about leverage and insisting on fair, enforceable deals that protect American jobs and farms.
The human side of this story is direct and unvarnished. “We rely on trade with other countries, specifically China, to buy our soybeans,” Brad Arnold, a multigenerational soybean farmer in southwestern Missouri, told FOX Business. He said that China’s decision to boycott U.S. soybean purchases “has huge impacts on our business and our bottom line.”
Agriculture can adapt, but not overnight. “There are domestic uses for soybeans, looking at renewable diesel, biodiesel specifically produced from soybeans,” Arnold said. “In the grand scheme of things, that’s such a small percentage currently, you know it’s going to take a customer like China to buy beans to make a noticeable impact. You can’t take our number one customer, shut them off and just overnight find a replacement.”
That reality matters for negotiations in Busan, where Trump and Xi will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. For Republicans, the goal is straightforward: secure trade terms that reopen dependable markets without sacrificing national security or giving away leverage. Farmers need clarity, not gestures that evaporate when headlines move on.
There are signs that diplomacy can nudge behavior. Reports of China buying a modest amount of U.S. soybeans ahead of the summit point to how purchases can be used as bargaining chips. But one shipment does not fix two years of lost contracts, and it does not replace a clear strategy to keep American agriculture competitive for the long term.
Policy has to balance carrots and sticks: open markets for American goods while protecting critical industries and preventing economic coercion. That means targeted tariffs, export promotion, and partnership with allies to provide alternatives for countries tempted to offload their dependence on the U.S. It also means making sure trade is reciprocal and predictable for the folks who plant, harvest, and ship our crops.
The soybean saga is a live case study in the costs of strategic rivalry and the stakes of diplomatic talks. Farmers and voters in rural America are watching the Busan meeting for signs that their government will put muscle behind words. The test for Trump and Xi will be whether diplomacy delivers enduring access for American soybeans or just another temporary pause in a longer contest.
Darnell Thompkins is a Canadian-born American and conservative opinion writer who brings a unique perspective to political and cultural discussions. Passionate about traditional values and individual freedoms, Darnell’s commentary reflects his commitment to fostering meaningful dialogue. When he’s not writing, he enjoys watching hockey and celebrating the sport that connects his Canadian roots with his American journey.