With the 2024 presidential election days away, Rasmussen’s head pollster, Mark Mitchell, has forecasted a significant win for former President Donald Trump, drawing comparisons to Ronald Reagan’s historic landslide over Jimmy Carter in 1980. According to Mitchell, Trump is on track to not only win in key battleground states but to dominate the national popular vote, signaling what he believes could be a sweeping “political realignment” favoring Republicans.
In an exclusive interview, Mitchell shared his bold projection, stating, “What you’re hearing out there is that the polls are close, and I think that’s wrong.” He claimed that independent polling suggests Trump is leading strongly in battleground states, with even traditional Democratic strongholds like Virginia and New Hampshire potentially flipping in Trump’s favor. Other states such as Minnesota and New Mexico, Mitchell suggested, could follow suit, creating a broader Republican victory.
Mitchell attributed this potential shift to voters’ dissatisfaction with the current administration under Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden on the ticket this election cycle. “People don’t care who Kamala Harris is. They care that she’s part of the Biden administration, and the Biden administration has been deeply unpopular,” he remarked. Mitchell further noted that Trump’s long-established public image and familiarity with Americans—despite the controversies surrounding him—could be a significant advantage in contrast to Harris.
Polling dynamics, Mitchell argued, reflect a major realignment where party affiliations are becoming less relevant than loyalty to individual candidates. “Party [affiliation] means a lot less than whether you support Trump or Harris,” he observed. This shift, he contended, may be making it difficult for pollsters to accurately capture the state of the race, especially given Trump’s history of outperforming polls.
Looking at Trump’s support in swing states, Mitchell pointed out that the former president appears even stronger in these key areas compared to previous election cycles. “He’s doing way better than he ever has in previous cycles,” he said, estimating that if Trump maintains his current trajectory in both national and swing state polls, it could lead to a decisive victory. Comparing the situation to 1980, Mitchell suggested that Trump’s broad appeal mirrors Reagan’s widespread support in that election, which culminated in a landslide.
“A lot of people have been talking about 1980,” he remarked, noting that Reagan’s win defied conventional polling at the time. He suggested that a similar dynamic is at play today, albeit complicated by the internet and new forms of media, which he believes may skew some polls in favor of Harris. Mitchell speculated that certain outlets might be overemphasizing Harris’s support, adding, “I think really, the plan was to shill for Harris and try and get her over the hump.”
Mitchell emphasized that Rasmussen’s data has shown a steady lead for Trump, estimating that the race has been “locked in at Trump plus two national popular vote” for weeks. Despite some minor fluctuations, he believes that this baseline lead is a strong indicator of Trump’s advantage as Election Day nears. Harris’s support, according to him, remains largely based on opposition to Trump rather than genuine enthusiasm, with Democratic voters driven by fears of Trump’s return rather than a positive vision for Harris’s potential presidency.
The potential impact of early voting and voter turnout strategy is also crucial to Mitchell’s analysis. He highlighted Trump’s significant lead among voters planning to cast their ballots on Election Day, estimating that Trump leads Harris by “seven to twelve points” among this group.
This enthusiasm, Mitchell suggested, could translate to a powerful surge on Election Day, particularly in battleground states. He speculated that if early voting returns in certain states heavily favor Trump, media outlets might be forced to call a Trump victory early, regardless of state-by-state vote counts.
Virginia and New Hampshire, two traditionally Democratic-leaning states, could indicate broader trends if Trump performs well in these areas, Mitchell suggested. “It’s possible we’ll see an early flip of Virginia and New Hampshire,” he stated, adding that a stronger Republican turnout in Virginia, including in Democratic areas, could further signal a shift. Although he expressed skepticism that traditionally blue states like New Jersey would flip, he suggested that Trump has closed the gap there, highlighting the larger trend toward Republican gains.
Media coverage has also played a role in shaping voter perception. According to Mitchell, the Harris campaign has benefited from positive media coverage, while Biden was often portrayed unfavorably. “Biden wasn’t getting [the coverage]. He should be mad. He should sue – the media threw him under the bus,” he quipped. He believes that while this media attention temporarily boosted Harris’s favorability, it has not resonated deeply with voters in key swing states.
Mitchell ultimately sees the election as a battle between Trump’s solid base and a Democratic coalition motivated primarily by opposition to him. “Democrats are mostly voting out of fear,” he observed, citing that top issues for Democrats are concerns about “Trump’s threat to democracy” and abortion, which he believes are primarily fear-driven.
Reflecting on the potential for a landslide, Mitchell reiterated his belief in a historic realignment and Trump victory. “I think we’re [looking at] 1980 minus Anderson,” he concluded, referring to third-party candidate John Anderson’s impact on the Reagan-Carter race. Mitchell predicted that Trump could win by three points nationally, cementing a major political shift that would extend well beyond this election cycle.
