OPEC+ will not change its oil production targets for November, the producer group confirmed Sunday, matching what traders had already expected heading into the meeting.
Seven core members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — made the call during a brief online session. Their next meeting is set for Nov. 1.
The decision to stand pat comes as Gulf producers continue pumping well below their official targets. The ongoing fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted exports, which have been running at just 60% to 80% of normal levels for months.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo summed up the situation bluntly.
“The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota. Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”
Prices had slipped Friday after European leaders agreed to President Trump’s request to tap into diesel reserves. Even with that dip, Brent crude is still trading above $100 a barrel — a massive jump from roughly $73 before the Iran war broke out in late February.
The war has also stalled a planned review of the group’s output capacity, a process meant to set 2027 production quotas. Industry sources told Reuters last week that the conflict has made it nearly impossible to accurately estimate members’ future production potential.
OPEC+ had spent much of 2026 raising output targets after years of cuts, but the Middle East conflict kept most of those increases from translating into actual barrels pumped. The seven core members produced 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July — but still about 5 million bpd short of prewar levels from February.
The group still has roughly 2 million bpd of cuts in place across most members. Sources say any further changes to output are unlikely before 2027, pending results of the capacity review.
A separate, non-policymaking body, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, also met Sunday to review market conditions.
