Republican Sen. Jon Husted holds a narrow lead over Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s 2026 U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll from ActiVote, putting the incumbent ahead 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.
The poll surveyed 400 likely voters between September 26 and October 18, with a median field date of October 7. The 0.4-point gap falls well within the survey’s 4.9-point margin of error.
ActiVote said the race hinges on centrist voters, where Husted holds a commanding lead.
“The race is decided in the center, where Husted leads by 56% to 44%,” the firm wrote in its analysis.
Husted performed best with rural voters, men, white voters, voters aged 30 to 64, and those with a high school education or less. Brown led with suburban and urban voters, women, black voters, the youngest and oldest age brackets, and college-educated voters. ActiVote cautioned that these subgroup numbers carry a larger margin of error than the topline figure, and noted that Ohio does not register voters by party.
A separate survey backed up the trend. The account Political Polls shared Rasmussen Reports data from October 14 showing Husted at 49 percent and Brown at 47 percent among likely voters — a five-point swing toward Husted compared to an earlier Rasmussen result, according to the account.
Those two polls break from a string of recent surveys showing Brown with a lead. A CNN poll released October 8 had Brown ahead 49 percent to 43 percent. A New York Times/Siena College poll showed him up 49 to 46. A Marist poll gave him an eight-point edge, 51 to 43.
Brown is seeking to reclaim the Senate seat he lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in 2024. Husted, unlike Brown, has never won the seat in an election — Republican Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him last year to fill the vacancy left when JD Vance became vice president.
President Trump, who carried Ohio by about 11 points in 2024, has endorsed Husted and campaigned for him this month. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has labeled Brown a “two-time loser.”
Brown’s campaign manager, Patrick Eisenhauer, has fired back, calling Husted “for sale.”
