Republican Mike Rogers now leads Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll conducted for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV. Rogers took 45.8 percent to El-Sayed’s 44.4 percent among 600 likely voters, with nine percent still undecided.
The 1.4-point gap falls inside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four points, putting the seat squarely in toss-up territory.
The finding reverses a string of recent polls showing El-Sayed ahead. An EPIC-MRA poll released last week had him up four points, 47 percent to 43 percent, and a Susquehanna poll earlier this summer showed him leading by seven.
Pollster Richard Czuba, who conducted the new survey, called the race a “toss-up.”
Among voters most committed to actually casting a ballot, El-Sayed still edges ahead, 46.7 percent to 44.4 percent. Czuba said that gap traces back to enthusiasm: Republicans who say they will “definitely” vote outnumber similarly committed Democrats by 10 points, the widest such gap he’s measured across four elections.
Czuba linked the numbers directly to President Donald Trump, whose job approval in the poll sits at 35 percent.
“We cannot talk about this Senate race without talking about Donald Trump’s numbers, because they are literally the elephant in the room,” Czuba said, noting that more than 80 percent of undecided voters in the race disapprove of the president.
Rogers led among independents by nearly 14 points and performed better with voters over 40 and those without a college degree. El-Sayed held the advantage among younger voters, college graduates, and Black voters.
Other recent surveys have shown a similarly tight race. An AARP poll last month had the candidates virtually tied, while a Fox News poll gave Rogers a four-point lead.
El-Sayed has drawn support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), though he says he does not identify as a democratic socialist. Rogers has called his opponent an “extremist.”
Chris Turner of Inkster told the Detroit News he doesn’t trust El-Sayed and opposes his push for single-payer health care.
“I really don’t want someone screwing with that again,” Turner said.
