Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a slim lead over Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Quantus Insights poll that calls the contest “closely divided.”
Hinson draws 47.1 percent support to Turek’s 45.8 percent, a gap of just 1.3 percent. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn pulls 1.7 percent, with 5.4 percent of voters still undecided — more than enough to tip the outcome either way.
The margin holds up under different question formats. When undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are factored in, Hinson rises to 48.5 percent and Turek to 46.6 percent. Asked to choose only between the two major-party candidates, voters put Hinson at 48.9 percent and Turek at 46.7 percent.
Turek, who has the backing of former President Barack Obama, is drawing strength from independents, who favor him by 17 points; another 9 percent of independents remain undecided. Hinson leads by 10 points among men, while Turek leads by 12 points among women.
The age breakdown shows a sharp generational split. Voters 18-29 back Turek by 21 points, the two candidates are tied among voters 30-44, and Hinson leads by eight points among voters 45-68 and by three points among those 65 and older.
“Turek’s strength among women and independents offsets Hinson’s rural advantage, leaving Iowa’s Senate race closely divided,” Quantus Insights concluded.
The poll surveyed 714 likely voters September 28-29, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.
A separate Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey released in September found a wider gap, with Hinson leading Turek 50 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Emerson noted that marked a two-point gain for Hinson over the previous month. In August, Hinson had 48 percent support to Turek’s 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided — meaning her lead grew from three points to five points over that stretch.
Hinson has made border security a centerpiece of her campaign, calling for stricter enforcement of immigration law and the deportation of what she calls “dangerous criminal illegal immigrants.” Turek, meanwhile, has a record of supporting taxpayer-funded welfare benefits for illegal immigrants, a record he has sought to distance himself from on the campaign trail.
The RealClearPolling average of all surveys currently shows Turek ahead by less than half a percentage point, underscoring just how tight the race remains heading into the fall.
