A new New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats leading or running dead even with Republicans in five Senate races that will shape control of the chamber: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.
The poll, released Saturday, found Democrats leading by 6 points in Texas and 7 points in Alaska. In Ohio, Democrats lead by 3 points. In Iowa, Democrats trail by 1 point. In Kansas, the race is tied.
Because the margins of error in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas run from 4.5 to 4.6 points, those three races are effectively statistical ties, according to The Hill’s reporting on the data.
The survey also found President Trump’s approval underwater in every one of the five states, ranging from a high of 41 percent to a low of 38 percent. Disapproval ranged from 55 to 60 percent. In Ohio specifically, Trump’s approval sat at just 38 percent against 60 percent disapproval.
The polling turned up a wide enthusiasm gap between the two parties. Among Democrats polled, 97 percent disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while only 80 percent of Republicans approved. Independents broke heavily against him too, with just 27 percent approving and 71 percent disapproving.
How the poll was conducted
Fieldwork ran from Sept. 21 to Oct. 1, drawing on a total sample of 2,946 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 points. State-by-state samples were smaller: 606 voters in Iowa (margin of error 4.6 points), 616 in Ohio (4.5 points), 615 in Texas (4.5 points), 605 in Kansas (4.6 points), and 504 in Alaska (5.1 points).
Economic headwinds for the GOP
The Senate numbers land alongside a separate Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll showing most Americans blame Trump for rising prices heading into the midterms. That poll found only 17 percent approve of his handling of higher prices and 26 percent approve of his handling of the economy overall, while roughly 65 percent blame his policies for high prices.
Fox News has reported that Republican performance in November will largely come down to two things: inflation and whether the party’s base turns out to vote.
