Mikie Sherrill edged out Republican Jack Ciattarelli to keep New Jersey’s governor’s office in Democratic hands, riding strong support from Black voters, women, and younger cohorts. The result extends Democratic control for a third straight term, and the headline numbers reveal clear demographic breakthroughs and stubborn policy concerns that shaped the outcome.
The Fox News Voter Poll of more than 4,400 registered New Jersey voters shows a voting map that favored the Democrat in several critical groups. Black voters turned out overwhelmingly for Sherrill, and younger voters and women pushed her across the finish line. That coalition offset Republican strength among white men, especially those without a college degree.
Gender was decisive in this race: women backed Sherrill by roughly a 20-point margin over men’s preference for Ciattarelli. The difference was strongest among younger women, where Sherrill enjoyed her deepest support. Moms broke for the Democrat by nearly 2 to 1, while dads tilted toward the Republican by a bit more than ten points.
Sherrill’s multiracial coalition generated the kind of margin Republicans had hoped to chip away at, with more than nine in ten Black voters and close to seven in ten Hispanic voters supporting her. White voters overall favored Ciattarelli, driven mostly by white men. White women were nearly evenly split but leaned slightly toward the Democrat.
Education also split the electorate: college degree holders favored Sherrill, while voters without a degree narrowly preferred Ciattarelli. The Republican carried white men without college degrees by a lopsided margin, showing where GOP messaging still lands. Independents were slightly with Sherrill, and about six in ten self-described moderates backed her as well.
Party loyalty held strong at the base for both sides, with candidates retaining over nine in ten voters from their respective parties. Roughly half of New Jersey Republicans identified as MAGA and rallied behind Ciattarelli. First-time gubernatorial voters skewed young and supported Sherrill by about two to one.
Military households tilted toward Ciattarelli despite Sherrill’s Navy background, and union households narrowly stayed with the Democrat. Late-deciding voters broke strongly for Sherrill, roughly seven in ten, which mattered in a close statewide contest. Voter enthusiasm looked different across camps: Ciattarelli supporters said they were voting in support of their candidate more often, while many Sherrill backers framed their vote as opposition to national figures.
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Economic concerns dominated the ballot box. Taxes were the top priority, followed by the broader economy and healthcare, and those priorities divided the vote. Voters who named taxes as their main issue leaned toward Ciattarelli by more than twenty points, while those prioritizing the economy slightly favored Sherrill.
Property taxes and electricity costs were widespread headaches, with seven in ten calling property taxes a major problem and nearly nine in ten saying rising electricity costs are a problem. Voters who saw both issues as major problems were more likely to side with the Republican. Those with more optimistic views of the state economy leaned toward Sherrill, while pessimistic voters favored Ciattarelli.
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National politics was a clear undercurrent. About seven in ten Sherrill voters said they were sending a message of opposition to President Trump, and roughly a quarter of Ciattarelli voters said their choice was in support of the president. Trump’s approval among Garden State voters was underwater, and party brand perceptions were mixed heading into the vote.
Questions about character and fairness surfaced but did not topple Sherrill. Allegations around her Naval Academy record failed to shift the needle for most voters, and those prioritizing honesty favored her by a sizable margin. Meanwhile, perceptions of campaign fairness landed harder on Ciattarelli, with many voters saying his campaign ran an unfair race.
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Political corruption and the desire for change each mattered to distinct voter groups. Those who viewed corruption as a major problem were likelier to pick the Republican, while voters who saw it as a minor issue favored Sherrill. Voters who wanted big change tended to support Ciattarelli, and those focused on shared values and representation gravitated to Sherrill two to one.
METHODOLOGY
The Fox News Voter Poll is based on a survey conducted by SSRS with New Jersey registered voters. This survey was conducted October 22 to November 4, 2025, concluding at the end of voting on Election Day. The poll combines data collected from registered voters online and by telephone with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts per state. In the final step, all the pre-election survey respondents and Election Day exit poll respondents are combined by adjusting the share of voting mode (absentee, early-in-person, and Election Day) based on the estimated composition of the state final electorate. Once votes are counted, the survey results are also weighted to match the overall results in each state. Results among all more than 4,400 New Jersey voters interviewed have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, including the design effects. The error margin is larger among subgroups.
