With Election Day six days away and one of only two gubernatorial contests in the country tightening, New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli is pushing early voting as proof his campaign has momentum, pointing to unusually high turnout and strong mail-in returns while arguing the GOP is positioned to flip the governor’s office and pick up legislative seats.
Ciattarelli has made early voting a central message, and he told supporters plainly, “We’ve seen more Republicans return vote by mail ballots than ever before,” using the surge as evidence his ground game is working. The message landed at a Hannity town hall where he reminded listeners that the race is close and every returned ballot matters. That pitch fits a campaign strategy aimed at converting occasional voters into reliable participants this cycle.
He doubled down on those numbers with the precise claim, “The return rate’s been phenomenal. And here through the first five or six days of early voting, which goes through Sunday, we’ve been matching them voter for voter. That puts us in a really good position to win,” stressing that matching Democratic turnout early is the clearest path to victory. The campaign has leaned into targeted outreach and mail drives to reach infrequent Republican voters who typically sit out non-presidential years. That push is baked into messaging from the top down and echoed across local GOP organizations in the state.
Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill has also acknowledged the strong early numbers, saying, “We’re seeing such great results in the vote by mails and the early voting,” and adding, “Certainly the trend is much better than ’21.” Her comments signal both campaigns recognize turnout will decide this match-up, but Republicans argue their recent gains in registration and enthusiasm give them an edge. The back-and-forth on early returns has set the tone for a finish that could come down to who gets their voters focused and to the polls in the final days.
Ciattarelli’s rise to the GOP nomination was cemented by a high-profile endorsement, and the campaign has tapped that momentum by scheduling tele-rallies and high-energy appearances to mobilize supporters. He noted that “that improvement means there’s 300,000 more people today that are favorable to the president than back in 2021,” tying national trends to local opportunity and suggesting a broader swing toward GOP preferences in the state. That linkage to the national party is deliberate: it’s meant to wake up low-propensity voters who respond to energetic, recognizable champions.
The campaign hasn’t been shy about bringing marquee MAGA figures to New Jersey, aiming to turn interest into action by coaxing one-time or occasional voters into the ballot box. In recent days, Ciattarelli toured with well-known allies who are popular with the base, using tele-rallies and personal appearances to create momentum and urgency. Republican strategists believe these moves can convert the quiet gains in favorability into real votes in tight precincts across the state.
On the legislative front, Ciattarelli has set an ambitious target, forecasting broader GOP gains if he can carry the top of the ticket. He argued that when down-ballot dynamics flip alongside a win at the top, “with the wind at my back this time around I can flip 13 seats and that gives us a Republican majority for the first time in close to three decades.” That kind of optimism matters in a state where Democrats have long held a structural advantage, and the GOP sees this cycle as a rare chance to change that balance.
Recent polling paints a tight picture, with some surveys showing Sherrill ahead by mid-single digits and others indicating a narrower margin, so the race remains very much in play. Republicans point to improved presidential performance in the state as evidence the electorate is shifting and assert that disciplined turnout operations will translate those shifts into wins. For Ciattarelli and his team, the math is simple: win the base, bring along the newly favorable voters, and the rest of the map falls into place.
New Jersey’s political quirks—like a tendency to elect governors from the party out of the White House and a history of alternating trends—mean predictions are perilous, but the Republican argument is focused and practical. They’re betting that higher early returns, a fired-up base, and targeted outreach to seldom-voters will produce the upsets necessary to reclaim the governor’s office and lift legislative prospects. The closing days will test whether those efforts can convert momentum into actual ballots.
