The Maine Senate contest has tightened into a close, high-stakes fight where voters worry more about Susan Collins’ ties to Donald Trump than about Troy Jackson’s progressive leanings, according to a recent statewide poll. The survey finds Jackson edging Collins in the head-to-head count, while inflation, immigration, and economic stress drive voter decisions and shape who looks most enthusiastic or likely to switch before November.
Susan Collins has been Maine’s senator since 1997 and secured a fifth term in 2020, giving her deep name recognition and an established base. Yet the poll shows 55% of Maine voters are concerned her voting record aligns with President Trump too often, while 43% worry Jackson is too close to the democratic socialist movement. Independents tilt toward worry over Collins, by about a 14-point margin, which is a warning sign for Republicans in a state Trump lost.
Troy Jackson stepped into the race after Graham Platner withdrew, and his background as a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate president shapes his appeal to certain voters. Jackson’s campaign has shifted the dynamics so the race reads more like a referendum on Collins, with 61% of his supporters saying their vote is mainly against Collins, up from 48% when Platner was the opponent. At the same time, fewer of those supporters describe their vote as a vote for Jackson, which underscores some lingering uncertainty around the new Democratic nominee.
Collins’ coalition also shifted after the ticket change, with 71% of her backers saying they’re voting mainly for her, up from 53% in June. Only 27% of her supporters now say they’re voting against Jackson, down from 45% when Platner was the nominee. That tightening of committed enthusiasm keeps Collins competitive even as head-to-head numbers narrow.
The topline race sits within the poll’s margin of error, with Jackson leading 48 to 46 percent, a two-point edge that flips a three-point Collins lead from June. Among voters who say they are certain to vote, Jackson’s edge increases slightly to a four-point advantage, which shows turnout intensity could cement or erase his slim lead. Since June, Collins has slipped about four points while Jackson is a point better than Platner was, so momentum favors Democrats in this snapshot.
Voter firmness favors Collins; by about an eight-point margin more of her backers say their choice is locked in, while roughly one in five Jackson supporters say they might change their mind before Election Day. Partisan loyalty holds strong, with roughly nine in ten partisans sticking with their party’s nominee, and independents narrowly preferring Jackson. That mix makes persuasion and third-party movement crucial in a tight contest.
Demographic splits show Jackson winning among liberals, college-educated women, younger voters under 35, men under 45, and union households, and he carries a small advantage with women overall. Collins remains strongest with conservatives, White evangelical Christians, older men 45 and up, voters without a college degree, rural residents, and married voters. Notably, Collins’ earlier 10-point advantage among men has basically disappeared, a shift that matters in a state where margins can be slim.
Support from ideological wings is uneven: almost all MAGA-aligned Republicans back Collins, but that cohesion drops among non-MAGA Republicans, where nearly one in five backs Jackson. For Jackson, nearly all supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America movement back him, though support falls to about two-thirds among other Democrats and independents. “Replacing Platner with Jackson has allowed two other factors to assert themselves — opposition to President Trump and a desire for change,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“The race remains close, and I’d never count Collins out, but you have to give a slight edge to the Democrats here.”
The political backdrop complicates Collins’ standing: she is the only GOP senator running for re-election this cycle from a state Trump lost, and Trump’s personal favorability in Maine sits well underwater. Voters list inflation as the top issue influencing their Senate choice, followed by immigration and border security, healthcare, and concerns about political divisions in the country, which means pocketbook issues still drive many decisions more than ideology.
Jackson’s advantage is strongest among voters who say they are falling behind financially, where he leads by nearly 29 points, highlighting the economic anxieties that buoy Democrats this cycle. Overall personal ratings show Collins underwater by about ten points, worse than in June, while Jackson’s favorability is marginally positive by one point, so both candidates carry notable negatives heading into the fall campaign.
Views of the MAGA movement and the DSA are both net negative, with MAGA at roughly minus 19 points and DSA at about minus 21, though opposition to MAGA appears more intense among those who dislike it. Democrats report higher interest and motivation in this election than Republicans by significant margins, but both sides are roughly equal in how certain they are they will cast a ballot, which makes turnout strategies decisive for either party.
The governor’s contest runs parallel, with the Democrat leading by double digits and a third-party candidate holding near single-digit support, yet nearly three in ten voters say their preference in that race could change. These shifting preferences and pockets of persuadable voters mean the Maine map remains very much in play as campaigns pivot to translating concerns into votes.
Conducted August 6-10, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,000 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (128) and cellphones (626) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (246).
Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Darnell Thompkins is a Canadian-born American and conservative opinion writer who brings a unique perspective to political and cultural discussions. Passionate about traditional values and individual freedoms, Darnell’s commentary reflects his commitment to fostering meaningful dialogue. When he’s not writing, he enjoys watching hockey and celebrating the sport that connects his Canadian roots with his American journey.