Israel’s parliamentary election produced no clear winner Tuesday night. Exit polls released after polls closed at 10:00 p.m. local time showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, both falling short of the 61 seats needed to control the 120-member Knesset.
Turnout hit 77.7 percent, the highest in an Israeli national election since 1999, according to figures reported by the Times of Israel. Participation was especially heavy in Arab-majority communities, a trend that is now reshaping the parliamentary math.
Three major broadcasters — Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13 — projected Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc at 50 seats, Eisenkot’s opposition camp at 52 or 53, and Arab parties at 17 or 18.
Channel 12’s poll had Likud winning 24 seats to Yashar’s 22. Kan 11 projected Likud at 25 and Yashar at 21. Channel 13 put the parties at 25 and 23, respectively. Both Kan 11 and Channel 13 projected Netanyahu’s bloc at 50, Eisenkot’s at 53, and Arab parties at 17.
Two other outlets showed a friendlier picture for Netanyahu, though still no majority. The i24NEWS exit poll, conducted by Direct Polls, had Netanyahu’s bloc at 55 seats against 49 for Eisenkot, with Arab parties at 16. Likud led Yashar 27 to 20 in that survey.
Channel 14 showed the tightest margin in Netanyahu’s favor, projecting his bloc at 60 seats — one shy of a majority — against 43 for Eisenkot’s camp and 17 for Arab parties. That poll gave Likud 30 seats to Yashar’s 19.
A Warning and a Counterpunch
Netanyahu pressed his supporters hard on election day, telling voters directly:
“If we don’t go vote now, we will find ourselves with a government of Arab parties.”
Eisenkot pushed back, accusing Netanyahu of running the same playbook he’s used before. His party, Yashar, went further, claiming Netanyahu was setting the stage to dispute the results by claiming the election was stolen.
The Central Elections Committee rejected a request from Netanyahu and his allies to extend voting past the scheduled 10:00 p.m. close, though voters already in line were allowed to cast ballots.
Arab Parties Hold the Balance
The five broadcasters forecast a combined 16 to 18 seats for the Joint List and Ra’am — enough to matter in any coalition math, but a complicated asset for Eisenkot. Several opposition leaders have refused to form a government that depends on Arab party support, which muddies Eisenkot’s path even if his bloc holds a numerical edge.
At Yashar’s Tel Aviv headquarters, supporters cheered the early projections and chanted “Bibi, go home” as the numbers came in showing the opposition bloc ahead of Netanyahu’s allies.
But neither camp has a clean claim to power. Netanyahu can point to Likud’s projected status as the single largest party. Eisenkot can point to broader combined representation among Netanyahu’s opponents. Both claims will land on President Isaac Herzog’s desk, who will consult the elected factions before deciding who gets first crack at forming a government.
Smaller Parties on the Edge
Several smaller parties are projected to miss Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold altogether, including former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, which had aligned with Netanyahu’s camp. The Reservists-Economic Party and the Haredi Public party were also projected to fall short — outcomes that could shift the final seat count once ballots are certified.
None of this is final. More than 650,000 special ballots — from soldiers, diplomats, and other eligible voters — still have to be verified and counted separately in the coming days, and that count could change whether smaller parties clear the threshold or shift the balance between the two blocs.
This was Israel’s first parliamentary election since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attack, held after years of war that have remade the country’s political landscape. What comes next — a deal among rivals, a unity government, or another trip to the polls — depends on negotiations that haven’t yet begun.
