Donald Trump currently leads Kamala Harris in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, indicating a potential shift in key battleground states that were crucial during the 2020 election.
A recent poll conducted between September 17 and 21 surveyed 2,077 likely voters across these three states. According to the latest NYT/Siena data, Trump holds a five-point advantage in Arizona, with a 50%-45% margin. In Georgia, he leads by four points at 49%-45%, while the race is tighter in North Carolina, where Trump is ahead by just two points, with a 49%-47% score.
This shift in support for Trump is particularly noteworthy in Arizona and Georgia, both of which Joe Biden won in the last election. Notably, Arizona’s swing is striking, especially given a New York Times poll from August that had Harris leading by five points.
The latest numbers suggest a growing support for Trump as the general election approaches. Political commentator Miranda Devine remarked on Twitter that the Harris camp may feel pressure to engage in more public interactions, such as press conferences and town halls, where her positions could be more openly scrutinized.
The NYT poll findings come shortly after a Fox News national survey indicated that Harris was leading Trump by two points, with a margin of 50%-48%. This Fox News poll also reflected a shift in voter sentiment since mid-August, when Trump had a slight one-point advantage.
Several factors may have influenced these changes in voter sentiment, including the Democratic National Convention, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent endorsement of Trump after exiting the race, and endorsements of Harris from figures like former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney. Additionally, a second assassination attempt on Trump occurred during the polling period, which could also have impacted public opinion.
Republican pollsters are optimistic about Trump’s chances in the 2024 election, particularly given the current national polling landscape. Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster associated with Fox News, noted that if Trump is close to Harris nationally, he is likely to secure the Electoral College.
Shaw emphasized that the data showing Trump’s lead in key battleground states aligns with this optimistic outlook. Alongside the New York Times poll, a separate analysis from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill indicates a competitive race in all three swing states, reinforcing the notion that Trump could regain significant ground as the election nears.
These narrow margins underscore the high stakes in key battleground states as the election approaches.
Trump’s rising support in Arizona is particularly noteworthy, marking a significant turnaround from August when Harris held a five-point lead. Among registered voters, Trump now leads 49%-45%, with 7% of voters undecided or refusing to respond.
In Georgia, Trump leads 48%-44% among registered voters, a shift from last month when the candidates were tied at 47% each. Similarly, in North Carolina, Trump has edged ahead with a 48%-47% lead, reversing Harris’s earlier advantage.
The outcomes in these states are critical for Trump’s path to the presidency. While Harris could theoretically win without capturing Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina, doing so would complicate her route significantly. Both Georgia and North Carolina are seen as essential to Trump’s chances of reclaiming the White House.
If Trump secures victories in these battlegrounds, it could substantially alter the dynamics of the 2024 election. The polls also highlight the close nature of the race and the critical importance of voter turnout.
With a margin of sampling error between 4.2 and 4.6 percentage points across the three states, the competition remains fierce. Although Trump’s lead is notable, it falls within the margin of error, indicating that both campaigns must focus intently on mobilizing their bases in the final weeks.
Overall, the latest polling data offers a boost for Trump’s campaign, suggesting he remains competitive in pivotal states that could decide the election outcome. As the race unfolds, both Trump and Harris will likely concentrate their efforts on these vital states, where even slight shifts in voter sentiment could significantly impact the final result.
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