As the 2024 election season heats up, Donald J. Trump is showing remarkable strength in the polls, particularly in critical Midwestern battleground states.
On Tuesday, September 24, 2024, in Savannah, Georgia, the former president delivered a confident speech at the Johnny Mercer Theater during his first campaign event in the city. Grinning throughout his remarks, Trump appeared energized by the strong reception.
Meanwhile, despite Vice President Kamala Harris’s ongoing efforts to gain traction, the race remains tighter than many Democrats would prefer. Polls indicate Harris has not yet made significant inroads with key voter demographics, leaving Trump with a growing base of support that could prove decisive in the upcoming election.
BREAKING: Trump is the “clear favorite” in the 2024 election under latest national polling, per CNN & Silver Bulletin.
Electoral College win probability:
Trump – 68.4%
Harris – 30.9%— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) October 3, 2024
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania, securing the state by just 80,000 votes.
It was a close race, and Donald Trump needed only 46,000 additional votes across key swing states to claim re-election.
Now, with Kamala Harris leading Trump by a slim margin of two to three points in some polls, concerns are growing within Democratic circles about her ability to fend off a potential Trump comeback.
CNN’s “poll of polls” currently shows Trump with nearly a 70 percent chance of winning the 2024 election, based on current polling data.
CNN's poll of polls gives Trump a nearly 70% chance of winning the election (68.4% to Kamala's 30.9% to be exact).
32 days to Election Day.
Harris-Walz was given almost the full backing of the media
T-ball interviews
Blatantly biased debate moderators
It may not matter… pic.twitter.com/Rbq9Xur4op
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 3, 2024
One of the most troubling trends for Kamala Harris is her underperformance with key Democratic voter groups, particularly union workers.
Reports suggest she is struggling to connect with union voters, and projections indicate she could be one of the weakest-performing Democrats with this group in a generation.
Additionally, Harris is underperforming among Black and Jewish voters—two historically strong Democratic constituencies.
Although she may be outpacing Biden in certain areas, experts note that her overall performance lacks the momentum necessary to establish a significant lead over Trump.
CNN Senior Data Reporter shows a map of what the electoral college would look like if the polls were off to the same degree they were in 2020.
The result: 312 electoral votes for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/oVBLfpfqc1
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 20, 2024
However, with such tight margins and significant portions of the electorate still in play, neither campaign can afford to let up.
🚨Election Forecasting Models Are Converging
Our models have shown a steady edge for Trump in the Electoral College since Sept 1, and outperforming national polls. As the industry catches up, expect the race to shift toward Trump in the coming week(s).
Our next update will come… https://t.co/NfV3esmEO5 pic.twitter.com/DFMVJnGRWN
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 4, 2024
Both Harris and Trump will continue to push their messages to voters across the country in the final stretch leading up to November.
The ultimate outcome will depend heavily on the decisions made by these critical voter groups.