Brazilians head to the polls Sunday in a runoff that pits conservative Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro against incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, with roughly 158 million voters deciding whether South America’s largest nation joins a wave of right-leaning governments now stretching across the continent.
Bolsonaro outperformed polling in the first round three weeks ago, taking 47% to Lula’s 45%. Neither candidate cleared a majority, forcing the second round. Pollsters had predicted Lula would win the first round outright by a wide margin.
The win fits a pattern. Starting with Javier Milei’s 2023 election in Argentina, right-leaning candidates have taken power across the region. Ecuador, Bolivia, Honduras and Chile all elected conservative heads of state in 2025. In 2026, Keiko Fujimori narrowly won Peru’s presidency, and in Colombia, conservative attorney Abelardo de la Espriella defeated left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda.
Bolsonaro’s allies in Congress also did well in the first round, positioning Brazil for one of its most conservative legislatures in years, regardless of who wins Sunday.
A Debate That Changed Little
The two candidates faced off Friday night in Rio de Janeiro in the campaign’s final debate, structured around questions from Brazil’s five geographic regions. The exchanges got personal and heated at times, but the debate does not appear to have shifted the race in either direction heading into Sunday.
Trump Claims Vindication
President Donald Trump has pointed to the string of conservative wins across Latin America as proof his hardline stance on crime, drugs and migration is working, and as support for his Shield of the Americas initiative. The administration now counts far more allied governments in the region than it did at the start of Trump’s second term.
Many of these elections have been close. Lula himself beat Jair Bolsonaro by just 1.8% in 2022. Analysts point to rising crime and security fears driving voters toward candidates promising more police and military presence, while leftist parties have struggled to answer voter anger over inflation, food costs, housing and energy prices.
The Shadow of Jair Bolsonaro
Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to free his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence on house arrest over an alleged coup plot following the 2022 election. Lula, for his part, was once sentenced to 12 years in prison on corruption charges tied to Operation Car Wash before Brazil’s Supreme Court threw out the conviction on a technicality, clearing his path back to the presidency.
Bolsonaro’s Structural Edge
Recent polls show Bolsonaro with a narrow lead. He also enters Sunday with the backing of three of the four other major first-round candidates who failed to advance: self-help author Augusto Cury, former Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado, and former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema. Entrepreneur Renan Santos of the free-market Mission Party declined to endorse either candidate, but his libertarian-leaning base is widely expected to break toward Bolsonaro anyway.
That leaves Lula needing to win over a large share of voters who backed right-leaning or center-right candidates in the first round — a steep climb.
Has Lula Overstayed His Welcome?
Sunday marks Lula’s seventh appearance on a presidential ballot in 40 years. He lost in 1989, 1994 and 1998, then won in 2002, 2006 and 2022. Five days before the 2022 runoff, on October 25 of that year, Lula posted on his official X account: “If elected, I will be a single-term president.” He did not keep that promise.
Polling shows significant dissatisfaction with Lula’s current term, including pessimism among some of his own 2022 voters about a fourth term. At the same time, a large share of Brazilian voters remains unwilling to back another Bolsonaro. Sunday’s vote may come down to how many Brazilians are voting against a candidate rather than for one.
